Melbourne is all set to become the fastest-growing capital city over the next couple of years and is forecast to overtake Sydney as the biggest capital city in Australia by 2029-30, according to the Centre for Population’s 2021 Population Statement released last month.
The latest Population Statement provides new analysis of the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic on Australia’s population, with the report revealing how restrictions on international borders and net overseas migration have affected population growth in the country; the Statement forecasts that the growth will remain low at 0.3 percent in 2021-22. Overseas migration to Australia, which has been the biggest contributor to population growth in the country, has been significantly affected by the pandemic.
According to federal minister for housing Michael Sukkar, net overseas migration is forecast to fall from a net inflow of 193,000 in 2019-20 to a net outflow of 100,000 in 2020-21, and a net outflow of 41,000 in 2021-22.
“While the outlook remains uncertain due to the unpredictability of COVID-19, population growth is projected to increase to around 1.4 percent by 2024-25 as overseas migration recovers,” he says.
In the population projections for Australia’s capital cities and rest-of-state areas, the Statement notes that population growth in 2020-21 is forecast to decline to -0.1 percent for capital cities combined, with 0.5 percent growth for the rest-of-state areas combined.
However, with greater relaxation of pandemic-related restrictions and return of overseas migration, capital cities are expected to show higher growth rates than rest-of-state areas from 2022-23 onwards.
Melbourne is projected to be the fastest growing capital city from 2023-24 onwards, overtaking Sydney as Australia’s largest city in 2029-30 with over 5.9 million people in that year. This is attributed to Melbourne’s slightly stronger net overseas migration and stronger net internal migration compared with Sydney.
From an estimated 25.7 million in June 2020, Australia’s total population is projected to increase to 29.3 million by June 2032. According to the Statement, population growth over this period is forecast to increase from 0.3 percent in 2021-22 to 1.4 percent by 2024-25 before declining slightly to 1.2 percent by 2031-32.
