An United Nations-commissioned report co-authored by a pair of Professors at the University of Sydney has outlined that governments around the globe are not prepared for a 50 percent increase in wildfires by the end of the century.

‘Spreading like Wildfire: The Rising Threat of Extraordinary Landscape Fires’ indicates that climate change and land-use changes will see a global increase of extreme fires by 14 percent by 2030, 30 percent by the end of 2050 and 50 percent by the end of the century. Fires attributed to climate change ripped through 60,000 hectares of land in Western Australia, with La Nina to bring further natural disasters due to plant life flourishing in the wet conditions. The report indicates even the Arctic’s fire risk level has increased. 

“Wildfires differ from ordinary, seasonal fires – they are uncontrollable,” says report Co-editor and Co-author Elaine Baker from the University of Sydney’s School of Geosciences.

“The Australian Black Summer bushfires of 2019-20, which killed 30 people and indirectly killed 450 others through smoke inhalation, are an example of this.”

The authors say a rethink on government spending, planning and preparedness will ensure countries are ready for a wildfire increase. Direct responses to wildfires receive over half of related expenditure, with planning and prevention accounting for less than one percent of spending.

“Response rather than prevention is ineffective and endangers lives. Wildfires usually only cease when the weather changes. There are many actions that can help reduce wildfire risk, including learning from Indigenous knowledge and greater involvement of communities in planning and prevention,” Baker says.

Report Co-author Ayesha Tulloch from the University of Sydney’s School of Life and Environmental Sciences says that the solution to wildfire prevention lies in landscape management.

“Fire is changing because human activities have changed the landscapes and the weather conditions in which it occurs. It’s not going to magically stop no matter what we do, but if we manage our landscapes better, we can significantly reduce its impacts on us and on nature.”

A number of animal and plant species have been displaced or wiped out due to wildfire, in particular the Australian summer bushfires of 2020.

“Some native animals and plants had almost their entire range burnt in those fires. They are now restricted to only a few last places, so both burnt and unburnt places need to be carefully managed to ensure that these species can move back when the time is right,” Tulloch says.

The authors believe there must be attention paid to the adverse effects fires have on one’s health.

“The health impact of wildfires is rarely considered,” says Baker, who is calling for stronger international standards for the safety and health of firefighters. Fire, smoke and pollutants can lead to damaged lung tissue and exacerbate respiratory illnesses and heart disease.

“In NSW during Black Summer in 2019-20, for example, many residents – even those in inner-city areas of Sydney – were exposed to the fires’ dangerous chemical cocktail. Not only was it physically harmful – it cost the government over $1 billion in health expenditure.”

Housing and commercial developments can lead to further exposure to fires.Undeveloped land away from cities is often unregulated which may lead to further tragedy. In developing countries this can be an even bigger issue due to not having the funds required to repair and rebuild as well as care for those affected by fire from a health standpoint.

“A more coordinated approach between UN agencies could help developing countries prepare and also recover from the otherwise potentially long-term social, economic and environmental impacts of wildfires,” says Baker.

Working with Indigenous peoples is a fire prevention strategy the report believes can strengthen preparedness. 

“Indigenous Australians have skilfully used fire to care for their environments for thousands of years. There are a growing number of ’on-country’ Indigenous fire partnerships across Australia that focus on cultural burning practices to prevent wildfires and conserve wildlife, but we need a lot more recognition and support for Indigenous cultural fire management both in Australia and overseas,” says Tulloch.

The report additionally proposes policies, legal framework and incentives to implement fire safety strategies. Wetland restoration and building at a distance from vegetation are examples of investments that could be made.

To read the report in full, click here.

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