Fossil fuels still power 80 percent of our energy requirements globally. With the rising climate impact concerns, achieving international climate goals has become imperative for every country. It naturally follows that the existing fossil fuel infrastructure must be progressively shut down as the world transitions to electric systems.

But when the world goes fully electric, what happens to the cars, tools and livelihoods that rely on fossil fuels, asks civil engineer and environmental sociologist, Emily Grubert. As the critical, decades-long transition to a clean energy future begins, what are the implications of retiring fully-functional fossil fuel-dependent energy plants? And things like gas stations and people's cars, stoves and furnaces.

“The global dominance of fossil fuels and the global emergency of climate change means that this retirement imperative exists everywhere, whether infrastructure is relatively old – like in the US..., or relatively newer, as in many countries with more recent industrialisation,” observes Grubert.

Nevertheless, the transition needs to be well-planned and gradual to prevent disruption, which would mean that the existing fossil fuel infrastructure should be able to continue operating safely until the new system is completely ready to take over.

“Just letting these systems go away would be deeply disruptive and hazardous,” warns Grubert. “We'd expect disproportionate harm to overburdened and underserved communities who can't opt out from skyrocketing prices, abandoned remediation plans and declining access to energy services.”

Hence, the need to plan! Grubert believes these urgently needed plans to phase out fossil systems and phase in clean energy systems don’t exist yet. What should the world be doing right now to successfully achieve the climate goals?

“The time between now and success is where this gets real and very difficult,” says Grubert. ‘Mid-transition’ is how she describes it – a period that might last for decades even under a best-case scenario!

Mid-transition is a critical period because the fossil energy systems will become less functional even as there isn’t enough clarity about what the new clean energy systems will need to handle. There will be inefficiencies during the transition, but people will accept them keeping in mind the ‘shared future vision’. However, trust in that vision can weaken when it’s required for decades, says Grubert, especially with the rising climate fears coupled with the dismantling of working energy infrastructure.

Therefore, the transition plan must be focused on people, starting with those who work in existing power plants, because their expertise will inform the transition pathway. The planning will need to be very specific and community-embedded, and should address multiple issues ranging from reemployment of workers, and safe temperatures in homes, to making sure a few gas stations remain open to enable people to commute during this period until an alternative transport mechanism is in place. 

Given the scale of the effort, Grubert suggests a centrally coordinated approach to execute the transition plan. To begin with, setting deadlines for fossil asset retirements with at least a decade-long notice gives communities enough time to design and execute plans, while a legislated end date gives them enough confidence that the deadlines are manageable, reinforcing their commitment to the process – similar to President Biden's 2035 power sector decarbonisation target in the United States.

Being honest with people about the transition and its implications and challenges, and giving them enough time and support during this period can be “really transformative”, says Grubert. “That is what earns and maintains trust. Not far off emissions targets with vague implementation plans.”

Image: istockphoto.com

Based on a talk titled ‘What happens to gas stations when the world goes electric?’ presented by civil engineer and environmental sociologist Emily Grubert at an official TED conference - TED Countdown Dilemma Series in October 2022.