Economic analyst and forecaster BIS Shrapnel reveals that New South
Wales’ win in the 2014 State of Origin series has more to do with investment
cycles.
In its new Infrastructure and Mining blog, BIS Shrapnel points out an
interesting correlation between civil construction activity in each state and
the outcome of each State of Origin series since 1996. Therefore, NSW’s thrilling
series win - their first in eight years – is connected to the state’s rising engineering
construction activity.
For instance, in the ten series played between New South Wales and Queensland
during the period 1996-2005, also a period when New South Wales engineering
construction activity eclipsed that of Queensland, the Maroons only won two
series, two were drawn and six were won by the Blues.
However, Queensland’s infrastructure and resources investment boom from 2006
coincided with an eight-year uninterrupted reign of success for the Maroons.
Senior Manager of BIS Shrapnel's Infrastructure and Mining Unit, Adrian
Hart says that they have been notifying this stark correlation to their Queensland
and New South Wales clients over the past few years. This also means, the 2014
series win for New South Wales could auger a new cycle of Blues domination.
Hart observes that the construction momentum has definitely shifted in
favour of New South Wales; driven by new transport infrastructure projects
across roads and railways, and with the prospect of airport development at
Badgerys Creek, New South Wales civil construction activity is set to exceed
that of Queensland by a substantial margin, suggesting more series victories ahead
for the Blues.
Queensland's prospects have correspondingly weakened with the mining
investment boom cooling down.
BIS Shrapnel’s new
Infrastructure and Mining Blog
BIS Shrapnel’s new Infrastructure and Mining blog will provide a variety
of news, perspectives and analysis on Australia’s infrastructure and mining
markets based on extensive research.
